At a Glance Q2 2023

Logistics market Berlin

Logistikmarkt Berlin BNPPRE
125,000 m²
TAKE-UP
-82 %
H1 2023 vs. H1 2022
-48 %
IN COMPARISON TO 10-YEAR
AVERAGE

SUPPLY LIMITS TAKE-UP, BIGGEST DEAL AT 12,700 M²

  • That Berlin's logistics market missed its comparable prior-year figure (-82 %) is hardly surprising when considering the exceptional result of 709,000 m² due to the Tesla megadeal and other major deals. With take-up of around 125,000 m² and only one letting above the 12,000 m² mark, market activity at the current mid-year was significantly more fragmented than in 2022, particularly in the large-scale segment.
  • Nevertheless, the result does not represent a statistical outlier: For example, in the past five years, half-year results in the region of the 130,000 m² mark were already registered in 2020 (around 135,000 m²) and 2018 (around 131,000 m²), which modifies the current take-up.
  • In the development of prime rents, the limiting factor appears to be supply and not demand: Thus, at the top, around 4 % higher rents are required than 12 months previously, making Berlin (7.80 €/m²) the third most expensive market just behind Hamburg (7.90 €/m²) and Munich (9.50 €/m²).

HIGHEST SHARE OF TAKE-UP IN RETAIL AS WELL AS SMALL SPACES

  • As already indicated, the lack of supply is reflected in a rather unusual distribution of take-up across the different size categories. Accordingly, the smallest category of space up to 3,000 m² is responsible for the highest contribution to the total volume at just under 32%. In line with this, most of the result was realised in the core area, which indicates that smaller inner-city spaces are the focus of demand due to their proximity to the sales market.  
  • In terms of sectors, wholesale/retail companies are at the top of the ranking with a share of 49 %, primarily due to the largest contract of the first half of the year, signed by Bär und Ollenroth (12,700 m²). Logistics firms account for almost 23 % and manufacturing companies for around 8 %.
  • So far, there have been no owner-occupier deals, and lettings in new buildings or projects accounted for 46 % of market activity. 

KEY FIGURES

OUTLOOK

  • The result on the Berlin logistics market confirms the observation of hardly any large spaces being available at the moment. Accordingly, market activity over the past 12 months has initially shifted in favour of smaller spaces with good transport connections within the metropolitan region.
  • Measured against the requests on the demand side, a significantly higher take-up would have been possible. However, since the segment of speculatively new building space can currently only help in individual cases, the market dynamics are currently increasingly limited to smaller-scale lettings in existing properties.
  • Nonetheless, the brightening overall economic situation is expected to lead to an increase in letting volumes in the second half of the year. Rents will remain under pressure and are likely to continue their upward trend in the coming quarters.

LOGISTICS MARKET REGION BERLIN

MAJOR CONTRACTS

12.700 m²
Bär & Ollenroth
Berlin

10.000 m²
Kühne & Nagel
Großbeeren

8.300 m²
Staatsoper
Berlin

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Published by: BNP Paribas Real Estate GmbH | Edited by: BNP Paribas Real Estate Consult GmbH | As of: 30.06.2023
Further Information: BNP Paribas Real Estate | Branch office Berlin | Phone +49 (0)30-884 65-0
Photo credits: Adobe Stock / JFL Photography; Aleksei