BNPPRE Dashboards

Office market Q4 2024

For the most part, the German office markets were able to escape the persistently weak economic trend at the end of 2024. Over the course of the year, office take-up increased from quarter to quarter, with Germany's top office marktes of Berlin, Düsseldorf, Essen, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Leipzig and Munich recording total take-up of 2.66 million m² for the year. This result is a good 2% above the previous year's level, but falls well short of the long-term average of 3.45 million m². Although take-up in all cities remains below average for the year as a whole, the market confirms the catch-up and stabilisation trends observed since summer. Despite the lack of economic momentum and the persistently negative sentiment in the German economy, take-up in the second half of the year was higher than in the first, and in the top locations of Berlin, Munich and Hamburg, the fourth quarter was even the strongest of 2024 in terms of take-up. However, we only expect a significant upturn on the letting markets with take-up at least at average levels with a time lag in the tailwind of a German economic engine that is running more smoothly again.

Commercial investment market Q4 2024

Investment turnover in Germany picked up considerably in 2024. The total result amounts to around €35.2 billion, which corresponds to a year-on-year increase of almost 27%. The strongest increase was recorded by residential investments (30 units or more), which rose by almost 78% to around €9.3 billion and also have the highest market share of the total investment volume at a good 26%. Although the increase in commercial investments was significantly lower at just under 15% and a turnover of a good €25.9 billion, it is within the expected range. In general, it can be noted that the upward trend observed throughout the year continued in the final quarter and even accelerated somewhat. As a result, we expect the transaction volume for 2025 to increase significantly once again compared to the previous year. A result of over €40 billion for investments in commercial and residential properties does not seem unrealistic. However, the individual asset classes will benefit from this to varying degrees.

The share of certified green buildings within the commercial investment volume (excluding portfolios) remains at a very high level, even in a challenging market environment. After the top figure of just under 31% in 2022, around 27% was achieved in 2023. This is the second-highest share in the last 10 years and confirms the importance of green investments. While the EU Taxonomy mainly concerned companies in the real estate sector that wanted to place funds on the capital market, it is now affecting more and more market participants. Accordingly, sustainability regulations are becoming increasingly important for investors and buyers across the board, while at the same time occupiers (tenants and leaseholders) must now also take taxonomy criteria into account in their corporate governance. Against this backdrop, proactive management will remain the order of the day in 2024.

Logistics market Q4 2024

The nationwide logistics market achieved a take-up of around 5.3 million m² in 2024. This result is 16% below the previous year's level and 24% short of the ten-year average. After a very subdued start to the year, demand picked up, which led to an increase in take-up in the following quarters and constant results over the course of the year. In particular, the ongoing difficult economic environment combined with the only very moderate GDP forecasts for Germany have resulted in a lack of momentum for logistics take-up comparable to that of previous years. It is primarily the large-scale contracts of over 20,000 m² that have not been concluded on a similar scale to previous years. The general conditions for the further development of the logistics market are unlikely to change much in 2025: from today's perspective, it can be assumed that take-up will remain stable for the time being and only pick up significantly once there is a noticeable economic upturn.

Retail market Q4 2024

The already good letting momentum of the first three quarters gained further pace towards the end of the year: Overall, the nationwide retail market broke through the 500,000 m² mark in the past 12 months for the first time since 2019 (around 506,000 m² take-up in Q1-4 2024). This corresponds to an increase in the result of around 15% compared to the previous year, which had to be corrected considerably because of the already cancelled major deals of the Modehaus Aachener (Q1-4 2023: around 440,000 m²). The slight upward trend at the end of the year also sends a positive signal for further development in 2025: At around 147,000 m², the best quarter of the year was achieved in the final quarter and a comparable volume was generated as in the fourth quarter of 2019.

Residential Dashboard 2024

The German residential investment market continued to pick up over the course of the year 2024. In the year as a whole, €9.3 billion was invested in larger residential portfolios (30 residential units or more). This made residential the strongest asset class in 2024, ahead of logistics (€6.9 billion), retail (€6.3 billion) and office (€5.2 billion). Given the return of investor confidence, the further improvement in the financing environment and the further improvement in fundamental data, the positive trend on the German residential investment market is likely to continue in 2025. In view of the foreseeably weak level of new residential construction activity for years to come, rental prices are also likely to continue their dynamic growth trend. To summarise, the good prospects on the fundamental side and the stability of cash flows clearly speak in favour of investing in German residential properties.

Residential rental & purchase price navigator

The residential markets of the most popular metropolises in Germany have been dominated by rising rental and purchase prices for years. But what is the situation in the rest of the country? BNPPRE investigated this question and analyzed all 108 independent cities in Germany. With the BNPPRE Residential Navigator, which is updated every six months, you can make further progress through the numerous residential markets and keep an eye on rental and purchase price developments (for condominiums) in the new builds and existing stock as well as other key figures.

Hotel Dashboard H1 2024

In the first half of 2024, an investment volume of €545 million was registered with hotel transactions. Although the long-term average was once again clearly missed (-58% resp. 10-year average: €1.3 billion), this represents an increase of 40% compared to the weak H1 result of the previous year. The overall positive trend towards a further market upturn and an acceleration in transaction activity is underlined in a direct quarter-on-quarter comparison by an increase in the investment volume of almost a third and a doubling of the number of transactions to around 20 in the second quarter. Nevertheless, the investment volume remains at a significantly lower level than in previous years.

The Hotel Dashboard from BNP Paribas Real Estate provides an overview of the development of hotel investment and performance indicators in the various top markets in Germany.

BNPPRE Tourism analyser

On the German hotel market, after the impactful Corona years of 2020 and 2021, all key performance indicators suggest that the recovery of tourism in Germany has gained significant momentum, especially since summer 2022. With a total of around 349 million overnight stays between January and the end of September, the figures for 2021 as a whole (around 310 million guests) had already been outperformed by almost 13% before the start of the fourth quarter. On a monthly basis, the number of overnight stays has been on a par with the level of 2019 since August due to the renewed demand impulses in city and business tourism as well as among guests from abroad. An analysis by BNP Paribas Real Estate on the most important developments and trends in the German hotel market shows how the Corona crisis has affected the general conditions in the hospitality industry and influenced travel behaviour in Germany.