Logistics market Cologne

DOMSTADT REMAINS ON COURSE

• The Cologne logistics market recorded a take-up of 256,000 m² in 2022, exceeding the long-term average (225,000 m²) by around 14 %. This means that the current overall annual result represents the third-best result of the past 10 years. However, the cathedral city was unable to match the record result of the previous year (334,000 m²) and fell short of this by almost 23 %. 

• In the course of the year, only a few new building spaces came onto the market, so that their share of take-up for the year as a whole was only 21 %, which is clearly below average.

• Due to increased construction costs and the continuing shortage of space available at short notice, the dynamic development of rents continued in 2022. In a 12-month comparison, the prime rent rose by 21 % to 7.00 €/m². The average rent also recorded an increase of 6 % to 5.20 €/m².

LOGISTICS & MANUFACTURING AHEAD

• The distribution of take-up among the demand groups is dominated in equal parts by logistics firms and manufacturing companies. Both sectors achieve around 29 % and 75,000 m² of take-up respectively. The wholesale/retail companies, which are traditionally important for the Cologne market, are in third place in the sector split with around 22 %.

• In terms of size class distribution, large lettings > 20,000 m² stand out with around 36 % of take-up, including the contract signed by Production Resource Group for around 20,300 m² in the first quarter, which was advised by BNPPRE. The size segment between 12,000 and 20,000 m² also recorded an above-average result of almost 16 %.

• In general, market activity in the smaller segment is also comparatively dynamic. The size category below 5,000 m² contributes around 20 % or 51,000 m² to take-up.

KEY FIGURES

OUTLOOK

• Despite economic and geopolitical uncertainties, the Cologne logistics market was characterised by relatively high market dynamics in 2022.

• Against the backdrop of limited availability of logistics space in the core area, demand in the Cologne market area is increasingly focussing on peripheral locations.

• In view of the current economic influences, a restrained rental activity is to be expected at the beginning of 2023. Nevertheless, demand for 2023 as a whole is estimated to remain at the same high level as in the previous year. A slight increase in supply due to new speculative space on the market seems possible from today's perspective.
• Due to the combination of currently high inflation, significantly increased construction costs and continued supply shortage, a further rising of rental prices in the course of the year is the most likely scenario.